Motoring in 2020

[Tomcat]

OK folks crystal balls out and tell me your best guess of what we will REALLY be doing in 10 years time. Not what we 'might' be doing or what fancy technology exists that 'could' be used. I want to know what you think is genuinely likely to happen in terms of vehicular use and road law.

A few thoughts of my own

1. Speed limits will continue their current cycle of enforcement followed by reduction and further enforcement, and by 2010 the country will have blanket limits of 20mph in all towns, 40mph out of town and 60mph on motorways only.

2. All motorways and many rural dual carriageways will be toll roads, usable only by vehicles radio tagged for entry/exit and average speed control by camera with hefty fines for evaders/speeders.

3. Speeding penalties will be progressively increased as the public is brainwashed into believing it's as antisocial as drink driving, and perhaps by 2010 they will have reached the stage where minor infractions of the speed limit (as minor infractions of the drink limit) will result in an automatic year's ban.

4. Road tax and insurance will escalate massively for higher powered vehicles, driven by government policy and targeted taxation.

5. Motorcycle licences will become tiered with only the basic 125cc licence able to be held without regular strict re-tests.

Is that harsh? What do you think?

[Yorick]

TC next year

[chillitt]

Petrol will be £4000 a gallon, but we wont have pounds or gallons.

[cheb]

Those with the foresight to hoard tonnes of semi-rancid congealing fat in their sheds will be laughing. Gagging at the smell of rotten sick on steroids but laughing.

[RiceBurner]

Originally Posted by Tomcat

OK folks crystal balls out and tell me your best guess of what we will REALLY be doing in 10 years time. Not what we 'might' be doing or what fancy technology exists that 'could' be used. I want to know what you think is genuinely likely to happen in terms of vehicular use and road law.

A few thoughts of my own

1. Speed limits will continue their current cycle of enforcement followed by reduction and further enforcement, and by 2010 the country will have blanket limits of 20mph in all towns, 40mph out of town and 60mph on motorways only.

2. All motorways and many rural dual carriageways will be toll roads, usable only by vehicles radio tagged for entry/exit and average speed control by camera with hefty fines for evaders/speeders.

3. Speeding penalties will be progressively increased as the public is brainwashed into believing it's as antisocial as drink driving, and perhaps by 2010 they will have reached the stage where minor infractions of the speed limit (as minor infractions of the drink limit) will result in an automatic year's ban.

4. Road tax and insurance will escalate massively for higher powered vehicles, driven by government policy and targeted taxation.

5. Motorcycle licences will become tiered with only the basic 125cc licence able to be held without regular strict re-tests.

Is that harsh? What do you think?

Maybe - but more like 30-40 years than 10 I reckon.

[DefTrap]

We will pay more fuel tax and road fund tax and the roads will be more shit & congested. But we will have our shitty little satnavs and bluetooth wotsits and think we iz kewl. Folk abroad will laugh.

[Irn Bru Freak]

I think that other than inflation and the ordinary development of existing platforms and ideas it shall not be much different from today.

[Gedge]

Ten years from now, interactive/passive safety devices will be much more prevalent..auto brakes/lights/wipers etc..
Congestion will reduce average speeds .Non A roads will have dropped to a 50 anyway..

People will reduce their reliance on vehicles due to cost and environment concerns..things like reps will become a thing of the past along with a lot of freight transport.
People will still moan about the state of the roads and about being taxed to death and picked on, but otherwise things will be quite similar to now...

[The Reverend Counter]

Originally Posted by Tomcat

OK folks crystal balls out and tell me your best guess of what we will REALLY be doing in 10 years time. Not what we 'might' be doing or what fancy technology exists that 'could' be used. I want to know what you think is genuinely likely to happen in terms of vehicular use and road law.

A few thoughts of my own

Well my thoughts are it will be very much like it is now only more so

Originally Posted by Tomcat

1. Speed limits will continue their current cycle of enforcement followed by reduction and further enforcement, and by 2010 the country will have blanket limits of 20mph in all towns, 40mph out of town and 60mph on motorways only.

Certainly there will be a lot more 20 speed limits about but I dont think the other stuff will come in

Originally Posted by Tomcat

2. All motorways and many rural dual carriageways will be toll roads, usable only by vehicles radio tagged for entry/exit and average speed control by camera with hefty fines for evaders/speeders.

Radio tagging? no chance, too easy to make 'tin foil' hats for the aerials and too difficult to retro fit, probably loads more average speed scameras though

Originally Posted by Tomcat

3. Speeding penalties will be progressively increased as the public is brainwashed into believing it's as antisocial as drink driving, and perhaps by 2010 they will have reached the stage where minor infractions of the speed limit (as minor infractions of the drink limit) will result in an automatic year's ban.

Nope, cant see it myself

Originally Posted by Tomcat

4. Road tax and insurance will escalate massively for higher powered vehicles, driven by government policy and targeted taxation.

Ahh tax increases, yep thats coming

Originally Posted by Tomcat

5. Motorcycle licences will become tiered with only the basic 125cc licence able to be held without regular strict re-tests.

Doubt it, dont think the rest of the EU would go for it

[melons]

Originally Posted by Gedge

Ten years from now..things like reps will become a thing of the past along with a lot of freight transport.

Are you insane or just pissed?

[protoborg]

Methanol and methanol mixtures becoming more common for spark ignition engines and eventually becoming the primary vehicle fuel.

Diesel and petrol getting ridiculously expensive.

Biodiesel fails to live up to expectations but struggles on.

Liquid fuel from coal becomes more common.

[Gedge]

Originally Posted by melons

Are you insane or just pissed?

Lets see...

Internet makes the need for visitng reps a thing of the past..

Rising fuel costs and congestion along with the development of eco towns and transport restrictions in cities (congestion charging etc) force more freight on to railways ...


Nope, not pissed...so probably insane ( or maybe I read too much stuff about this at work on an eco town project..)

[Tomcat]

Super-expensive fuel is a dead cert, even with substitutes they will only extend the life of the oil reserves and will still cost loads. Will this reduce the volume of traffic? Dunno, but we have been very price inelastic so far with petrol price rising from £1 a gallon to £1 a litre in a relatively short time (doubling in the last 10 years despite no major supply shocks). Yet we still drive more than ever.



Folk may be sceptical about the rate of change of enforcement but I think this will come within 10 years. It's easy to bring in new laws, especially against minorities such as motorcyclists who account for a disproportionate number of KSI. And you only have to see the change in public attitudes to speeding - in just the last 5 years. It's noticeable, if depressing. Now phase 2 of the master plan is starting, with enforcement and "education" supporting compliance they are setting about reducing ever more limits. The means and the will to enforce those already exist, thanks to everybody who came round to the point of view speed cameras weren't a bad thing. Now we'll see where it goes.

And I reckon it will go a lot further and a lot sooner than people think.

[1913]

The impact on motor sport should be kicking in at that time as well, high income motor sport surviving as long as it is profitable enough to pay the fees, club racing taxed out of existence.

[protoborg]

Originally Posted by 1913

The impact on motor sport should be kicking in at that time as well, high income motor sport surviving as long as it is profitable enough to pay the fees, club racing taxed out of existence.

You can't have the flowers without the roots